Premier League xG Table vs Actual Table 2025-26: Who's Overperforming?
The Premier League table doesn't always tell the whole story. Some teams are riding their luck. Others are genuinely unlucky. The xG table strips away the noise and shows who's actually creating and conceding the best chances.
The Biggest Overperformers
Nottingham Forest: Forest have been the season's biggest surprise. They're sitting comfortably in mid-table, but their xG numbers suggest they should be closer to the relegation zone. They've been incredibly clinical in front of goal, converting chances at a rate well above the league average. Chris Wood has been outperforming his xG by nearly 5 goals. The question is whether this can sustain through the end of the season. History says probably not.
Aston Villa: Villa's actual points tally is higher than their xG-based expected points. Emiliano Martinez has been outstanding in goal, saving shots that the average keeper wouldn't. When your goalkeeper is outperforming expected saves by 3-4 goals, that's a significant factor.
The Biggest Underperformers
Chelsea: This is the fascinating one. Chelsea's xG has been consistently strong — they're creating high-quality chances at a top-4 rate. But their finishing has been wasteful. Cole Palmer aside, Chelsea's forwards have been underperforming their xG significantly. The underlying data suggests Chelsea are a much better team than their results show.
Tottenham: Spurs create chances. Lots of them. Their xG per match is elite. But converting those chances has been inconsistent. Son Heung-min's finishing hasn't been at his usual level, and the team has dropped points from winning positions more than any other side in the top half.
The Genuine Article
Arsenal: Arsenal's actual table position and xG position are almost identical. This is what you want to see — it means their results are sustainable. They're not getting lucky, and they're not being unlucky. They're genuinely performing at the level their underlying numbers suggest.
Liverpool: Similarly, Liverpool's xG closely matches their actual output. Under Arne Slot, they've built a system that creates consistent, high-quality chances while remaining defensively solid. Their expected goals against (xGA) is the second-best in the league.
What the xG Table Predicts for the Rest of the Season
Based on xG data through matchweek 29:
- Arsenal and Liverpool will fight for the title — both have sustainable underlying numbers
- Chelsea are likely to have a strong finish as their finishing regresses toward the mean
- Forest could slip as their overperformance corrects
- Manchester City xG numbers show they're still creating elite chances — a late-season surge is coming
The beauty of xG analysis is that it cuts through narrative. It doesn't care about vibes, momentum, or pundit opinions. The data tells the story, and over a 38-game season, the data is almost always right.